Author: Matt

  • Factorio

    Factorio

    I don’t often get to play video games, but I have put in 242 hours on Factorio. These are my favorite kind of games – resource management. And this one in particular focuses on one of my favorite things to think about – factories.

    The game features a complex tech tree of products that need to be built, and you design the full vertically integrated factory that extracts basic resources, refines them, and builds increasingly complicated parts. You get to layout all the complicated conveyor belts and machines to move things from one place to another.

    The most interesting things that end up complicating what you build tend to be around matching the production and consumption rates of various parts of the system – how many things fit on the conveyor belt, how fast can it deliver items, how reliable is the source material – does it need a buffer, what’s the ratio of particular production of sub-components required so you don’t have 1000’s of one thing, but none of another part.

    The game also has an element of battle with the aliens who occassionally attack and destroy everything (this is probably the least fun part of the game)

    There’s enough depth to the gameplay that I could definitely put 1000+ hours into it and still not be an expert in all the more advanced things like train management and control signals. And once you have explored the stock game, there’s a massive librarly of mods that can completely tweak everything.

    This is a game that teaches some valuable thinking skills. Managing complex systems and how best to abstract and organize things. I definitely got my money out of this game. Lots of fun. Highly recommend.

  • The Thesis Behind Psychedelic Water

    The Thesis Behind Psychedelic Water

    I posted this on Twitter a while ago, but this site is a good place to document these thoughts as well:

    1. Alternatives to alcohol is a growing market. There is a tailwind here as more people opt-out of consuming alcohol. I believe this is driven from disruption of the bar scene, zoom and video games replacing evenings out and health trackers clearly showing the negatives of drinking

    2. Psychedelic Water developed a proprietary mix of herbal supplement ingredients that is a compelling replacement for alcohol. It provides the relaxed happy and social benefits without the drunkenness, and hangover negatives

    3. Alcohol is bad stuff for us. it’s a habit forming drug associated with car crashes, domestic disturbances, poor sleep quality, hangovers, beer belly, loss of coordination, blackouts, hangovers, heart disease, high blood pressure, and worse. The world needs something better.

    4. The bold brand gets attention. It’s a double edged sword, but people hear about it and get excited. Our customers love what we’re doing & there are raving fans. It’s a product that people buy on-the-spot after hearing the 30 second elevator pitch.

    5. Psychedelics are becoming more acceptable and mainstream, as legality opens up we’re positioned to add new products. The brand also plays a role in normalizing and reducing stigma which hopefully accelerates legalization.

    6. Solving the problems with alcohol with something compelling will literally save lives, it’ll mend families and make people happier. There is a moral imperative to the mission of Psychedelic Water. That’s important

    So yeah, Psychedelic Water is an important company that needs to exist. The mission matters. The impact can be huge. That’s why I left a good job to work on Psychedelic Water.

  • Write down what you do

    Doing a little Journaling to document all the things you do in a single day can have an eye opening feeling.

    Yesterday, at around 5pm I started to write. At first, it felt like I hadn’t done much that day, but as I started to write out all the things that happened the list got longer and longer. Some of the items were decent wins – progress on the home renovation, grocery shopping, writing an investor email, baked cookies, caught a mouse and the list goes on.

    I looked at my partner and said “we got a lot done today”

    She replied “No we didn’t”.

    Writing it out gave me the hindsight to see just how many little things were accomplished that day. Before starting to write it out the day emotionally felt wasted, afterwards I had that emotional high from a sense of accomplishment.

    And all it took was a few minutes to reflect on the day and write it down.

  • What I’ve learned about Brand Marketing

    Brand marketing is the process by which a name/image/logo/product is associated for commercial purposes.

    This process is fundamentally the same as how we understand new words and are able to bring new words into our vocabulary.

    When we learn new words, we remember them best when there are multiple modalities and existing concepts to which we can ‘anchor’ that word to. The more connections and modalities the richer this web of associations can be and the stronger our memory is for recalling this new word in the future. This association works in both ways – we hear the word and it brings forth the meaning so we understand it, but also we see something and can recall the word to describe it.

    Language learners can use this to learn a new word and retain it:

    1. Hear the word spoken – ideally multiple times from multiple people’s voices and intonations
    2. See visual representations to correlate to that word
    3. Think of a story involving the word
    4. Imagine a smell, feeling or other sensory connection to the word.
    5. Think about memories, experiences, jokes, synonyms, homonyms, concepts or anything else from your mind to associate it with

    The richer the web of connections the more likely you’ll retain understanding of, and recall the new word to use in the future will be.

    The french word for grapefruit is pamplemousse. The hard way to learn this word is to have it on a list of other french words with their translation, you repeat it over and over for days. This is how I learned French in school. Invariably you’ll forget it. Instead, create something richer in your mind:

    1. phonetically it’s similar to pimple moose – imagine a giant pimple on a moose in the shape of a grapefruit for a comical visualization of the word. 
    2. Search google images and look at lots of photos and drawings of pamplemousses.
    3. Use YouGlish to find video clips of people saying the word (https://youglish.com/pronounce/pamplemousse/french?)
    4. Recall the flavor and smell of grapefruit
    5. Perhaps buy one to have, or get a glass of grapefruit juice
    6. Recall memories of grapefruits in your life

    With all these hooks to the word pamplemousse, it’s much more difficult to forget.

    Now think of a brand as a new word and you want to teach this new word to as many people as possible. The difference is that a person learning french actively works to remember that word, but branding is trying to teach a passively engaged consumer most of the time. Giving a dictionary style definition is simply not enough:

    Facebook: A social network platform where people connect with friends and family they know to share and communicate.

    This alone doesn’t fully describe the experience of using Facebook. Telling people what the product or service is just isn’t enough.  There is much more to what Facebook is than just that single sentence. If you base your judgement on a simple statement like that it might get tossed into other associated buckets of things you already know about – just another social network, just a buzzword definition, or just so bland that you already forgot it. We need something richer to engage and remember it.

    In the case of a brand we want to anchor a group of things together to create the web of associations with a purpose. On the design side we create a logo, language, colors, and art style that are a visual unit connected together. You associate emotions and feelings, stories, tastes, smells and sounds into the mix. And it centers around the brand and its product or service so that this new word is given a meaning.

    A brand can either be purposely built or be something more organic. Branding firms will do ground up brand design to choose the elements that come together and represent the brand. Or customers can create their own associations from interacting with the product and service and the brand can be discovered by everyone independently.

    There is no correct approach between those two – except that if the designed branding conflicts with the reality of the product or service you’ll probably end up with customer complaints from not meeting expectations.

    Now, when people talk about Brand Marketing, they usually are referring to a style of ads where the product and sales elements take a backseat to the jokes, action or story. The goal of the ad is to create or reinforce these associations rather than to immediately sell the product.

    The thinking here is that when the person is actually ready to buy, the association is embedded enough that the product is what they recall.  Thirsty? Coke, Thirsty from exercise? Gatorade, smell grease? McDonald’s. 

    The reality is that force-feeding brand associations to people passively is expensive.  It takes many times from learning a new word until you use it naturally; similarly it takes repeated messages to teach people about a brand. It has to be maintained over time or you start to forget. Paying for the media placements to do this broadly is extremely expensive.

    Going after broad concepts cannot be done effectively without also having broad distribution. To anchor an association like Thirst -> Coke the product must be available so that when a person is thirsty they are able to buy it. If on the other hand the stores only have Pepsi, then not only is the ad spend wasted, but Pepsi is now reinforcing their association to thirst with the smell, taste and tactile feel of their product.

    The payback is hard to measure – if it works people will buy weeks or months later. The customer may not even be aware of the influence of the brand into their purchase decision. So there is some trust required that the ads work in order to keep them going long enough to see the results.

    Because of the time and money investment to really solidify the brand in people’s minds these approaches are difficult to translate to small businesses. For branding on smaller companies you’re going to be niching down to smaller communities – maybe this helps. But it’s still difficult to even consider a pure branding play without the cash to wait weeks for any proof.

    Instead, try to do the brand focused elements of marketing on PR pieces, and websites. Be consistent with the use of colors and fonts. Have a name that already elicits the kinds of associations you want to have. These form the basis of a brand. Ensure the product is easy to purchase, and that all interactions have the same cohesive design.

    The Brand and the product have to go together or else the most critical connections won’t be created in the mind.

    A large part of branding for a small business is just applying the design elements with consistency across everything that customers see. This starts to create the richer set of associations we’re hoping for with a brand.

    For the most part, brand marketing is not a game for small businesses to be in. Stay on-brand for social media posts, perhaps use brand marketing style content organically, but save the brand marketing ads until after distribution is fully saturated

  • A Little Code Goes A Long Way

    Over the last few months my day to day has been dramatically different than the previous 10 years. I’m finding myself doing less coding and more random things. But having the background and experience to quickly put together a python script has unlocked a few things that have shocked my co-workers.

    One of my recent accomplishments has been in building sales leads. The internet contains a lot of this information, but there are many problems that need to be overcome to use it:

    1. know that the information you want exists somewhere and being able to find it.
    2. Be able to get at the information – pull it from HTML, reverse engineer the APIs, hack the JSON out of dev tools.
    3. clean and reformat the data into another format
    4. use additional tools to enrich
    5. import data into platforms so that it can be actionable

    For getting sales leads I was able to find lists of from some competitors, and from Google Maps search, enrich that data with some missing data like phone numbers and websites using the Google Maps APIs then push that into other SaaS apps that find additional emails and contacts for those leads and finally push those into hubspot to be worked on.

    I have ended up doing several other things to deal with peculiarities e-commerce datasets, grouping things, eliminating double counting of others. Things that are not built into standard dashboards and analytics tools. Python and Pandas has enabled a few interesting points of analysis.

    Who would have thought I’d deploy Airflow again and write scripts to push data into Google Data Studio so soon after getting away from that kind of work.

    Ever since my first software development job doing MatLab at the Department of Fisheries and Oceans programming has felt like magic. It can take an onerous task and complete it in milliseconds.

    At times knowing how to code feels like a super power.

  • Playing a Part in Re-Shoring

    One thing that has become abundantly clear over the last year is just how fragile our global supply chain is.

    • Covid lockdowns froze up the train yards and docks creating a shipping backlog, spiking costs and adding delays on all imports
    • hoarding of toilet paper made it a scarse resource
    • Snow in Texas disrupted all vehicle traffic for weeks
    • National first interests restricted availability of PPE and vaccines
    • ransomware on gas pipeline triggered a run on gas stations and fuel outages
    • Suez blockage prevented $9.6B worth of trade
    • Chip shortages are causing car factories to furlough workers waiting for parts
    • Lumber prices spiked 4x

    We discovered that our globalized marketplace based on finding the best prices for things wherever in the world they can be done is more fragile than it should be. Instead of being globally distributed and efficient it is focused centralization and adds dependence on a lot of risk factors. Clearly we should be finding solutions to add resiliancy to global supply chains.

    Resiliancy comes from having multiple options available and the flexibility to quickly change suppliers that are located in different countries. The closer businesses can be to their suppliers the lower the logistical risk. For many decades the focus on local commerce has been on food (at least here where I live). “Buy local” often refers the farmers markets for fresh locally grown produce and for artisan produced wares.

    Much more needs to be done and it is something I’d like to find a way to play a part in.

    There is a real need to fill in the gaps on the production of products where we rely heavily on imports. But that’s such a wide open problem that it’s hard to know what actionable things any of us could do to help. Some areas I’m trying to brainstorm on:

    • Is there something that could be done to make adding robots to factories, quick, easy and less daunting?
    • Could something be built to help find suppliers and lower the barrier to getting deals done?
    • Are there any industrial machines I could buy to scale up my own manufacturing business?

    Over the next few years I think and hope that investment money will allocate to solidifying local supply chains for the critical goods that have been off-shored. Bring that critical stuff back while remaining competitive through the use of more automation. It’s a wave I’m looking for a way to participate in.

  • A Split Testing Conundrum

    One of the big advantages you get in digital marketing and commerce is the ability to programatically deliver unique content to every individual user. With this dynamic nature you can test everything, and in it’s theoretical ideal state, each customer would see exactly the content that would make them buy at the highest price they would be happy to spend.

    We don’t have a way to build this level of customization and targetting yet where everyone gets a custom price and message. Our technology is a bit more fragmented. The ads on the page might be customized to things you’ve visited before and your demographics. A lot of money has gone into building incredibly advanced ad serving platforms. The rest of the page is usually a lot dumber.

    Advanced websites with lots of traffic might explore multi-variate tests. These typically are changing many individual elements on a page at once. Each person gets a unique page in the hope that you narrow down the set of colors, styles, images and text that optimizes for the best outcome. Multi-variate tests require a lot of traffic and can be difficult to setup. It’s a tool that people aspire to use and then usually fail to execute on because of the complexity.

    Slightly easier is a split test with a smaller set of options. When testing one item at a time, it requires less traffic to get a statistically strong result. Doing a split test sounds like it should be an easy and great way to confirm that a design change is worth making – is the green buy button better than the blue one at driving sales? But human psychology makes this a harder thing to do in reality.

    In real life, people ‘know’ the better price, the better color or the best photo to use. The designer hates the green button because it clashes with the navigation bar. The sales team ‘knows’ that the lowest price will drive the most sales. Everyone has an opinion on the best photo.

    There are problems with this:

    • The people with these opinions are not customers getting ready to open their wallet to buy. The goals are not aligned.
    • For every potential test, people ‘know’ which will win so why test an inferrior option and lose sales to the people who are served that one?
    • The person with the most convincing argument or with authority often wins

    The scientific approach to business is based on hypothesis. This framing helps remove ego. Instead of statements like “I like this logo because it is simpler/cleaner/funky/fun/etc”, you propose a potential outcome: “I believe this logo could be recognizable 20% faster, and allow us to lift prices by 5% to luxury levels without impacting sales volumes.” Now you have a testable hypothesis. sometimes all you need is one person on the team to discuss things this way and elevate things beyond instinctual decisions and towards conscious and deliberate strategy.

  • Best Days Of My Life

    Back in the summer of ’69 I was still not born yet, but this year is going to be the beginning of a major shift in how we think about and plan our vacations. Hopefully will be the foundation for many epic summers in the next several years.

    A couple of months ago we took a serious investigation on options for buying a motorhome. It took 4 years to really dig into options and consider the possibilities before landing on motohomes as the thing to do. But now we are the owners of a much too expensive vehicle on a 30 year loan.

    The payback will be that we now have a persistent reminder to disconnect and enjoy life sitting right in the driveway. We already have several trips planned for the summer to various campgrounds in Ontario. 2021 is our shakedown year to get a feel for the new rig, learn about all the camping options – public & private campgrounds, dry camping, crown land options and membership programs. Once we get more comfortable with everything in the coming years it will open the doors to trips to the east coast, to the west coast, and all through the USA.

    I’m excited.

    For the family, I hope that this change of pace will help build a foundation of summer memories for everyone, a second wave of the best days of my life.

    though everytime I see this in the driveway I can’t help but laugh. I can’t believe that we actually bought it.

  • Finding Winners

    There are lots of stats out there about how many businesses fail. It is astounding that something close to 9 out of every 10 businesses fold in just a few years. With each of those businesses there are smart ambitious people with the best of intentions, plans, and money to get things off the ground.

    With odds like that it’s amazing anyone every tries to start their own business right?

    But from a different perspective, with those odds and the potential rewards of a success why doesn’t everyone keep trying to start businesses?

    Every time you tackle a challenge like starting a new venture there is a tremendous learning curve.. how to hire/fire, how to raise financing, how to balance sales and marketing, what are your strengths and weaknesses, what should be delegated or contracted out. Nobody has all these skills in grade 5. There are no naturals. Everyone needs to learn.

    With that context it’s easy to understand why early attempts to start something have a high likelyhood of failure. Most people need to learn by doing and it’s easy to make lots of mistakes before you’ve mastered the skills.

    If one out of every ten lottery tickets was a winner would you keep buying tickets?

    matt warren

    I think I’ve scratched off more than my share of losing tickets. But with each loser my confidence has improved in specific areas.

    I think I’ve got a winner on my hands now.

  • Training Your Mind

    The human mind is fascinating in so many ways.

    I often like to invision the brain as an input/output machine with some internal loops to self-reflect and generate its own internal inputs. Inputs to the brain come from our senses – what we see, hear, smell, touch. Those inputs will physically modify your brain as new memories are formed and core-beliefs are established. As a result of those inputs your brain will produce an output, you’ll move your body, say something, or think something.

    Every detail of those outputs from big ideas to micro variations are influenced by the inputs to your brain in the first place.

    Most people, including myself, don’t take conscious and critical consideration about what inputs we provide for our brains to process and build memories from. We passively consume TV, read the news and listen to podcasts or radio for the emotional and entertainment value.

    What if we specifically fed ourselves the kinds of information that would align with our goals, or placed ourselves in situations to learn and practice the skills we need to get better at the things we deliberately want to pursue. This kind of intentionality would be a game changer if applied consistently for months or years.

    So, I’m encouraging everyone to take care before they train their brain with random inputs from news sources, social media, video games, music, conversations, or TV shows. If training your brain on something is not going to be of benefit to you, decide to do something that is instead.